New Poll Parses Support, Opposition, After Passage of NY Marriage Law

A new Quinnipiac University poll in the wake of New York's marriage equality law shows that support for the measure remains high -- and the opposition of faith leaders barely makes a difference.

The poll showed that overall, voters in New York State support the new marriage equality law by a wide margin, with 54% in favor and only 40% opposed.

GLBT equality issues receive more support in general from younger voters, and the new marriage parity law is no exception, the poll showed: Voters under the age of 35 support the new law by a whopping 70%, with a mere 26% opposed to same-sex families being granted the same suite of rights and protections that married heterosexuals automatically receive.

But New York's more mature voters also show strong support for the measure, with those aged 35-64 in favor of equal marriage rights for same-sex couples.

On the upper end of the age spectrum, opposition rises sharply: 57% of voters 65 and older disagree with gay and lesbian families accessing equal marital rights, the poll showed.

"Support remained consistent before and after passage of the bill," a news release regarding the poll noted.

Notable variances in support were also evident in the polling data according to religious affiliation. There was equal support and opposition among white Catholic voters, with 48% in favor and 48% opposed. Protestants were more likely to oppose marriage equality for gay and lesbian families: 54% opposed the new law, while 40% backed it, the poll showed. Support among Jews was high, with 67% in favor and only 30% opposed.

The highest level of support came from voters with no ties to organized religion. Among this demographic, 78% were in favor of the new law, with 17% in opposition.

Part of the reason religious people opposed the new law was a perception that it could leave religious organizations open to lawsuits by same-sex couples looking to celebrate their weddings at churches, temples, and venues owned by religious groups. A slim majority of Protestants -- 52% -- said that churches and other religious groups would come under pressure to accommodate same-sex weddings; 50% of white Catholics agreed. Jews did not share those fears, however, with only 38% saying that such pressure could be expected, and 55% saying that they didn't expect such a result.

Some Protestant faiths regard homosexuality as a "choice" made by gays. Religiously based "reparative therapy" programs claim that gays can "heal" their sexuality and "convert" to heterosexuality. The Catholic Church, however, acknowledges that gays do not "choose" to be sexually and romantically attracted to others of the same gender. However, the Catholic Church also teaches that sexual intimacy between loving, committed partners of the same gender is "inherently evil," and has accused gay parents of harming their children simply by raising them in a household headed by two adults of the same gender.

One of the most striking revelations of the new poll, however, is that anti-gay religious leaders do not easily sway people of faith. Overall, 70% of New York voters said that their stance on marriage equality was not affected by what anti-gay clerics had to say about same-sex couples and their families. By faith, only 17% of Protestants, 178% of Jews, and 21% of white Catholics said that anti-gay messages from leaders of their respective religious traditions influenced their personal views on marriage equality.

"Throughout the down-to-the-wire drama and the narrow margin in the State Senate, voter support for same-sex marriage has been consistent," the director of the Quinnipiac Polling Institute, Maurice Carroll, noted.
"On gay marriage, many of the people in the pews split with their bishops.

"Opponents had worried that churches might be pressured to perform same-sex marriages and a substantial number of voters think that's still a valid problem," added Carroll.

The bill that lawmakers passed in Albany on June 24 provided protections for churches and other religious organizations.

The fact that New York -- by far the most populous state to support marriage equality -- has now extended marriage equality to gay and lesbian families is bound to have an impact on the national debate surrounding GLBT equality issues, noted William Browning in a June 26 Yahoo! News op-ed piece.

"Four of the eight presidential candidates for the GOP nomination in 2012 stated in a recent debate they would back an amendment to the U.S. Constitution banning gay marriage," Browning noted. "Other, more centrist candidates, believed each individual state should decide the issue of gay marriage individually."

The issue is bound to play a part in the political scene as the 2012 elections approach, Browning suggested.

"As culturally diverse and liberal the state is, a ripple effect can only happen from this moment forward," Browning wrote. "California's Proposition 8 is in legal limbo. When they sort out the legality of a voter-approved initiative it will also have ramifications around the United States. Should another populous and liberal state join the fray on the opposite coast, more dominoes in the middle are sure to fall."

Browning went on to predict, "If anything, Republicans and their thinking are outdated and old-fashioned in terms of social issues. Their only chance to win in 2012 will be on the economy and jobs." The reason for this, Browning asserted, was, "It will be independent voters that need to be convinced to vote for more Republicans than Democrats in 2012. If Republicans are smart, they won't make gay marriage an issue.... Hundreds of thousands of gay supporters will rally around the cause if it becomes a major issue a year from now."

Anti-gay group the National Organization for Marriage has vowed to work toward unseating New York lawmakers who supported the measure, announcing plans to spend at least $2 million to go toward that end. The Quinnipiac data suggest that NOM may well end up simply tossing its money away, given the wide margin by which voters in New York support marriage parity.

NOM and other groups hostile to marriage equality are also focused on guiding an anti-gay constitutional amendment to victory in Minnesota next year. The anti-gay group was deeply involved in the passage of California's Proposition 8, which yanked existing marriage rights away from gay and lesbian families in 2008. That ballot initiative was found to be unconstitutional in federal court last year; the verdict is now under appeal and it is widely expected that the case will eventually go before the United States Supreme Court.

Marriage equality proponents are heartened by recent polls that show that, for the first time, a majority of Americans nationwide favor marriage equality. The vote in Minnesota could represent the first time that voters given a chance to limit the rights of a minority definitively reject such a curtailment.